"From Rebellion to Electoral Violence. Evidence from Burundi" is now an ECARES WP. It is co-authored with Andrea and Olivier.
We aim at understanding the triggers of electoral violence, which spoiled elections in Africa during the last decades. We focus on Burundi, a country where polls were organized in 2010, only few months after the end of a long-lasting civil war. We find that an acute polarization between ex-rebels’ groups is highly conducive to electoral violence. In particular, we predict a five-fold increase in electoral violence between the lowest- and highest-polarized municipality. However, neither ethnic nor political cleavages significantly determine such electoral malpractices. These results are robust to numerous specifications. We therefore argue that policies supporting the transition of ex-rebel groups from warfare to the political arena should be reinforced.